Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 178.884550 216.942746 264.099568 327.916635 413.771101 5.279357e+02 6.960074e+02
2025-04-06 136.776543 181.151218 243.356974 340.660227 496.647704 7.524612e+02 1.243200e+03
2025-04-13 109.436180 153.226760 219.734187 334.655431 544.240302 9.507314e+02 1.939621e+03
2025-04-20 98.554580 145.067318 221.110455 365.714192 666.449254 1.368017e+03 3.659611e+03
2025-04-27 89.725511 137.545357 220.645715 392.281261 794.641499 1.921079e+03 7.063611e+03
2025-05-04 82.018399 130.015301 217.806915 412.633600 922.170286 2.630555e+03 1.413061e+04
2025-05-11 75.062947 122.344015 212.636520 425.897174 1041.905615 3.507077e+03 2.975087e+04
2025-05-18 68.508876 114.209876 204.631988 429.720420 1139.164896 4.495714e+03 6.562285e+04
2025-05-25 62.142844 105.420503 193.449699 421.961217 1195.998673 5.442481e+03 1.466899e+05
2025-06-01 56.421372 97.082280 181.685959 409.118848 1228.667420 6.375441e+03 3.572714e+05
2025-06-08 51.488388 89.681105 170.723742 395.374210 1251.282538 7.365580e+03 1.077022e+06
2025-06-15 50.615803 90.362740 178.151594 437.593534 1552.929433 1.237742e+04 6.001204e+09
2025-06-22 47.543307 86.232926 173.938918 444.409558 1708.981901 1.730146e+04 NaN
2025-06-29 45.375204 83.771586 173.406252 463.717336 1964.754205 2.753091e+04 NaN
2025-07-06 42.193811 78.709682 165.442670 454.742758 2047.097566 3.601993e+04 NaN
2025-07-13 41.550656 79.206172 171.968720 501.596418 2589.777500 8.360480e+04 NaN
2025-07-20 40.585234 78.832740 176.118749 542.117610 3194.446099 2.203918e+05 NaN
2025-07-27 39.328071 77.612512 177.688907 573.428690 3820.605648 6.940422e+05 NaN
2025-08-03 37.838514 75.656119 176.782963 593.956663 4418.386880 2.915484e+06 NaN
2025-08-10 36.099056 72.898674 173.026942 599.891593 4881.626614 1.864567e+07 NaN
2025-08-17 34.094099 69.288157 166.121315 587.855036 5081.402302 1.918858e+08 NaN
2025-08-24 32.091529 65.510482 158.186579 568.005103 5130.859655 3.083508e+10 NaN
2025-08-31 30.233964 61.945961 150.461794 546.861319 5127.315749 NaN NaN